How to Reform Palestinian Politics
In his recent speech on the Mideast, President Bush made any improvement in Palestinians' miserable life conditional not only on security for Israel but on the removal of Yasir Arafat, their elected president, and on the implementation of political reforms. Since most Palestinians have no confidence in the Bush administration, they took the president's remarks as a green light to Israel to remove Mr. Arafat and perhaps renew occupation. Israel's declaration of "victory" after the speech indicated that Israelis interpreted it similarly.

If you were a Palestinian, you would probably feel that you have nothing more to lose. If you were Mr. Arafat, you would certainly have no incentive to step down. After all, he would be doing nothing more than leaving his people with a despicably corrupt and rightly friendless Palestinian Authority, keeping for himself only a political farewell colored by shameful defeat. He might also be leaving his people to the mercies of a politically strengthened fundamentalism.

These do not have to be our alternatives. Mr. Arafat does need to give up some power, and a great many Palestinians want him to. But neither he nor they will yield to curt demands from Washington or anywhere else. Surely that has been made clear in the past few years.

…Over time many Palestinians have lost confidence in Mr. Arafat, with his approval rating plummeting from a high of 75 percent in January 1996 to 35 percent this May. He has failed to deliver good governance or an end to occupation. During the current confrontations with Israel, most believed that he failed in projecting leadership. Now young men protest his rule in the streets of Gaza.

Yet most Palestinians also fear that American demands for new leadership are meant to clear the way toward a long-term interim agreement with a Palestinian ministate — the exceedingly vague "provisional" state alluded to by Mr. Bush — that will amount to an Israeli protectorate in a small part of the occupied territories. In the fight to avert being left with such a defenseless and dependent statelet, Palestinians believe strongly that they still need Mr. Arafat. He is their elected leader and the symbol of their national aspirations, and without him they would fear both Israeli and international neglect, as well as political strife at home.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/09/opinion/09SHIK.html