Israelis Conclude That Arafat Has Tightened Grip on Power
Even as Israeli and American officials speak of edging Yasir Arafat aside, the Palestinian leader has tightened his hold on power, some of Israel's senior security officers have concluded.

Mr. Arafat is strong enough that he is unlikely to be replaced by new leadership even if Israel banished him, a senior Israeli security official said today. Ariel Sharon, Israel's prime minister, has advocated that step.

"Even if he's in exile, his influence from there would be strong enough to prevent any grass from growing up," the official said. He described other potential leaders as "scared to death" of standing up to Mr. Arafat.

Paradoxically, Mr. Arafat's position appears to have been bolstered by Israel's recent military actions in the West Bank. Though he was weakened by the Israeli raids, potential replacements were weakened even more as their own reputations suffered and their internal alliances snapped.

"Relatively, he became a little stronger," the official said. "He has such power that no other Palestinian even comes close to it."

Mr. Bush criticized Mr. Arafat's leadership and dismissed his reforms. In Ramallah, where Israeli infantry once again surrounded Mr. Arafat's humbled compound tonight, Palestinian officials responded with consternation tinged by bafflement. "Nothing encouraging is coming out of Washington," Nabil Aburdeineh, a close aide to Mr. Arafat, said by telephone from the compound. "The Israelis are confused, the Americans are absent as always, and the region is in terrible shape."

Mr. Arafat is planning to consolidate security agencies. He has appointed an overall leader for those agencies, Maj. Gen. Ahmed Razak Yehiyeh, a longtime ally of Mr. Arafat's with no independent power base.

To Israeli intelligence, the reform fits a familiar pattern for Mr. Arafat, of preventing any clear successor or challenger from emerging by dividing power below his level. The most significant recent result of this method is the split between Jibril Rajoub, the chief of preventive security in the West Bank, and Muhammad Dahlan, who resigned recently as Mr. Rajoub's counterpart in Gaza.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/11/international/middleeast/11ARAF.html