Life After Arafat
But whatever responsibility Mr. Arafat bears for fomenting the violence that now dominates his society, there is a real question whether he now has the power to stop it. One senior European diplomat, who deals frequently with both Palestinians and Israelis, believes he does not. "Not even close." he said. "Maybe a year ago he had it, possibly. Today, absolutely not."

Mr. Arafat is increasingly unpopular among his own people, the butt of snide jokes about his corrupt Palestinian Authority and the cronies he brought with him from exile in Tunis and installed in top jobs. And there is a growing rivalry between this "Old Guard" of outsiders and the "Young Guard" of insiders who grew up in the street battles of the first intifada. The latter include men like Marwan Barghouti, the leader on the West Bank of the Tanzim, a militia nominally an offshoot of Mr. Arafat's Fatah, but in practice an independent rival.

"I don't believe he has much power," said Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. Mr. Shikaki's polls chart a mounting disillusion with Mr. Arafat and the Palestinian Authority since a high point of Oslo optimism in 1996. A central tenet of the Oslo agreement was that a Palestinian security force would protect Israelis from Palestinians, and back then, the Preventive Security Force chiefs — Jibril Rajoub on the West Bank and Mohammed Dahlan in Gaza — locked up Islamic fundamentalists wholesale. There was no public support for suicide bombing because hopes were high for a Palestinian state in the near term.

Israelis still want the P.L.O. to help ensure their security, but in the face of current conditions, it seems a preposterous idea. In Dr. Shikaki's latest poll, taken late last month, Mr. Arafat had only a 35 percent approval rating. Ninety-one percent supported fundamental change in the Palestinian Authority, 95 percent wanted the ministers dismissed and 83 percent believed corruption existed. And while 52 percent supported suicide bombing inside Israel, 86 percent opposed arresting the bombers.

The second intifada that broke out 20 months ago was as much a revolt against the aging P.L.O. leaders as it was against Israel, and today Mr. Arafat faces challenges from both secular nationalists — many with Western, democratic ideals — and from Islamic fundamentalists, whose influence has spread from their stronghold in Gaza to areas of the West Bank. The Islamists openly defy Mr. Arafat — last week they turned down an offer to join his "reform" government — and reject his call to stop suicide bombings inside Israel. Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, spiritual leader of Hamas, told the Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar: "We shall continue to pursue them everywhere, and they will not have security as long as we don't have it."

The attacks that brought Israeli wrath down on Mr. Arafat, both last April and last week, were carried out by Islamic radicals. Even as Mr. Arafat's compound here was besieged after the Passover bombing that killed 28 sitting down to a Seder, the Hamas leaders responsible were gloating to reporters in Gaza about their new explosives. Wednesday's bombing was carried out by a teenager from Jenin who residents said had been taught to drive just two days before by his Islamic Jihad mentors.

Israel attacked Mr. Arafat's compound in response, but the erosion of P.L.O. authority has left the bombers and the independent militias, now largely freelance, in charge.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/09/weekinreview/09KIFN.html