Saturday, January 17, 2004

Schneier.com: Crypto-Gram: January 15, 2004 — Color-Coded Terrorist Threat Levels:
"… the threat levels are largely motivated by politics. There are two possble reasons for the alert.

Reason 1: CYA. Governments are naturally risk averse, and issuing vague threat warnings makes sense from that perspective. Imagine if a terrorist attack actually did occur. If they didn't raise the threat level, they would be criticized for not anticipating the attack. As long as they raised the threat level they could always say 'We told you it was Orange,' even though the warning didn't come with any practical advice for people. "

Reason 2: To gain Republican votes. The Republicans spent decades running on the "Democrats are soft on Communism" platform. They've just discovered the "Democrats are soft on terrorism" platform. Voters who are constantly reminded to be fearful are more likely to vote Republican, or so the theory goes, because the Republicans are viewed as the party that is more likely to protect us.

(These reasons may sound cynical, but I believe that the Administration has not been acting in good faith regarding the terrorist threat, and their pronouncements in the press have to be viewed under that light.)

I can't think of any real security reasons for alerting the entire nation, and any putative terrorist plotters, that the Administration believes there is a credible threat.

http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram-0401.html#1

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