Sunday, May 04, 2003

Public Agenda Special Edition: Terrorism
Public Opinion: Public Faces Task of Rebuilding But Divided on How
As the U.S. begins its attempt to rebuild Iraq, surveys find the American public still supportive of both the war and its aftermath. Eight in 10 say they approve of the way the U.S. has handled the situation since the fighting ended. Six in 10 say the U.S. is winning the war on terrorism, a 25-point jump since last fall. But the public seems to recognize the difficulties ahead. A strong majority says the rebuilding of Iraq will be more difficult than winning the war and the public is divided on whether the Bush administration has a clear plan for rebuilding.

The public is divided on some key questions of how the rebuilding should proceed. The public gives different answers, for example, on the role of the United Nations in the rebuilding process and on what kind of outcome they want to see. When the latest Gallup poll asked respondents to choose between a "democratic government that is not friendly to the United States" or a government that is "friendly…but is not freely elected," the public was almost evenly split: 46 percent preferred the unfriendly democracy, while 44 percent chose the friendly but unelected regime.

The public has, however, had concerns about the long-term implications of the war for months. While two-thirds told the ABC/Post poll that the war would result in greater Mideast stability, only half said it would strengthen the U.S. position in the world. Six in 10 worry that the U.S will become bogged down in a long occupation. Yet Gallup found that three-quarters are also willing to have U.S. troops in Iraq for a year or more to make sure a democratic government is established. The CBS/New York Times poll on April 11-13 found the public divided on whether the Bush administration has a clear plan for rebuilding Iraq: 46 percent said it did; 42 percent said it didn't. Still, that's a dramatic increase from early March, when only 29 percent said the U.S. had a clear plan for rebuilding.

Support for the war overall remains substantial, as it has since hostilities began. Multiple surveys have shown at least seven in 10 Americans supported the war since hostilities began. Responses on specific poll questions (particularly on the number of casualties and how long the war will take) have swung widely, depending on events and intensive news coverage. But basic support for the war has not. The public historically rallies behind their leaders in a crisis, particularly when the crisis involves sending U.S. troops into battle.

It's important to note that many experts are sharply critical of overnight surveys, because they are more prone to error than surveys taken over a period of days or weeks. In such surveys, the samples are often smaller, the margin of error is higher and researchers only reach people who happen to be at home that evening. In addition, since people haven't had time to think about an issue, overnight surveys only capture surface reactions.…
http://www.publicagenda.org/specials/terrorism/terror_pubopinion6.htm

No comments:

Post a Comment

con·cept