Wednesday, February 05, 2003

Timing Is Everything
— I have heard it said in Washington that politics often drives the timing of government decisions. But as the allies debate when to take military action in Iraq the situation is just the opposite: the timing is driving the politics.

When it comes to determining the timetable for going to war the weather has more influence than France or other members of the Security Council. One day to keep in mind is April 7. That is the day, American war planners say, when the temperature in Kuwait first climbed to 100 degrees last year. By summer the desert had become a blast furnace with temperatures soaring to more than 120 degrees.

Despite appeals by France and Germany for prolonging the weapons inspections the weather in this region favors an early military campaign. The scale of the allied buildup is another factor. The American and allied forces that are assembling here will be prepared to strike by March and will lose their edge if they are kept on hold for too long.

It is possible to design a force to contain Iraq for many months or even years while the inspectors go about their work. But the invasion force that is being assembled here to topple the Saddam Hussein regime is not it.

The Bush administration has argued that there is no hope of persuading Iraq to peacefully disarm without a major display of force. But the flip side is that the buildup means there are weeks and not months left for diplomacy to work. That seems to be what President Bush means when he says his patience is running out. In the looming confrontation with Iraq timing, it seems, is everything.

The timing of a Iraq campaign can be viewed on several levels. In strategic terms, the Bush administration has a window for action for the next several years. The administration can be confident of its ability to prevail because it knows that Iraq does not have nuclear weapons, believes the Saddam Hussein regime is brittle and has concluded that much of the Iraqi military is ill-motivated and weak. As the case of North Korea shows, the United States options narrow considerably once a potential adversary is suspected of being a nuclear power. From a strategic standpoint, it is important to confront Iraq before it acquires nuclear weapons. In a sense, Washington has decided to take on the Saddam Hussein now because it can.

In terms of public opinion at home, the president also has a political window for action. The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington on Sept. 11, 2001, have created a sense of vulnerability in the American psyche that the White House has not been reluctant to exploit. After the successful intervention in Afghanistan, Americans are the accustomed to government efforts to topple foreign governments — what the administration likes to call "regime change."

Timing is an critical factor at the tactical level as well. Matters of war and peace, of course, need not be decided by the weather. The United States military has conducted exercises at its training range in the California desert and in Kuwait. American troops also plan to fight at night. That not only enables them to take advantage of their superior night vision equipment but also means they can take the fight to the enemy during the cooler part of the day. It is also important to recall that the desert heat will hamper the Iraqi military, too.

But no American military planner would prefer to fight in the heat of the Iraqi summer. The soaring heat makes it harder for the troops to endure the special suits and masks needed for protection against chemical or biological attack. If a new war is anything like the 1991 Persian Gulf conflict there will be numerous false alerts even if the Iraqis do not resort to poison gas or germ weapons. So allied troops will be jumping in and out of those suits.

The scorching heat will strain logistics. Water consumption will go up. Electronic components will break down more often. Fuel consumption typically increases. Helicopters will have a harder time flying heavier loads. In short, a military campaign that depends mightily on speed and quick maneuvers will have a reduced tempo.

"The optimal window is November until the end of March," said Robert H. Scales Jr., a retired Army major general and the former commandant of the Army War College.…
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/04/international/middleeast/04CND_DISP.html?pagewanted=all&position=top

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