Monday, July 31, 2006

Threat Assessment 101 - Grades Israel F, USA Absent

At Haaretz.com is a new column by Ze'ev Maoz, a professor of political science
at Tel Aviv University. Here are excerpts:

"There's practically a holy consensus right now that the war in the North is a just war and that morality is on our side. The bitter truth must be said: this holy consensus is based on short-range selective memory, an introverted worldview, and double standards.

This war is not a just war. Israel is using excessive force without distinguishing between civilian population and enemy, whose sole purpose is extortion.

"That is not to say that morality and justice are on Hezbollah's side. Most certainly not. But the fact that Hezbollah 'started it' when it kidnapped soldiers from across an international border does not even begin to tilt the scales of justice toward our side.

"Let's start with a few facts. We invaded a sovereign state, and occupied its capital in 1982. In the process of this occupation, we dropped several tons of bombs from the air, ground and sea, while wounding and killing thousands of civilians. Approximately 14,000 civilians were killed between June and September of 1982, according to a conservative estimate. The majority of these civilians had nothing to do with the PLO, which provided the official pretext for the war.

"In Operations Accountability and Grapes of Wrath, we caused the mass flight of about 500,000 refugees from southern Lebanon on each occasion. There are no exact data on the number of casualties in these operations, but one can recall that in Operation Grapes of Wrath, we bombed a shelter in the village of Kafr Kana which killed 103 civilians. The bombing may have been accidental, but that did not make the operation any more moral.

"On July 28, 1989, we kidnapped Sheikh Obeid, and on May 12, 1994, we kidnapped Mustafa Dirani, who had captured Ron Arad. Israel held these two people and another 20-odd Lebanese detainees without trial, as 'negotiating chips.' That which is permissible to us is, of course, forbidden to Hezbollah....

"The number of dead in Lebanon, the vast majority comprised of civilians who have nothing to do with Hezbollah, is more than 300.

Worse yet, bombing infrastructure targets such as power stations, bridges and other civil facilities turns the entire Lebanese civilian population into a victim and hostage, even if we are not physically harming civilians. The use of bombings to achieve a diplomatic goal - namely, coercing the Lebanese government into implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1559 - is an attempt at political blackmail, and no less than the kidnapping of IDF soldiers by Hezbollah is the aim of bringing about a prisoner exchange....

"But in terms of our own national soul searching, we owe ourselves to confront the bitter truth -- maybe we will win this conflict on the military field, maybe we will make some diplomatic gains, but on the moral plane, we have no advantage, and we have no special status."
http://editorandpublisher.com/eandp/columns/pressingissues_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002878892&imw=Y

When the weak
choose to stand up
it turns the world
downside up.

The asymmetry in the reported death tolls is marked and growing: some 230 Lebanese dead, most of them civilians, to 25 Israeli dead, 13 of them civilians. In Gaza, one Israel soldier has died from his own army’s fire, and 103 Palestinians have been killed, 70 percent of them militants. — JERUSALEM, July 18

That the weak
should dare have a choices,
Makes those empowered
hate their voices.

The point was strategic and also psychological, he said, to destroy “the symbol for the power of the state-within-the-state of Hezbollah” and attack Sheik Nasrallah’s “image as the defender of Lebanon.”Israel has now “demolished the entire compound, and the residents,
the leaders of Hezbollah, are now living underground or as refugees, and that’s a significant achievement,” the general said.

When they dare
to cross a border
they disrupt
all natural order.

Opinion polls show that Israelis back the Lebanon campaign because they see Hezbollah as a clear threat. They have also become inured to international criticism. Uri Dromi, director of international outreach for the Israel Democracy Institute, said, “Public opinion is not so sensitive, because we feel, generally speaking, the world is against us and we’re a little island in an ocean of enmity.”

Any method
of resistance,
becomes a threat
to all existence.

“Proportionality is not compared to the event, but to the threat, and the threat is bigger and wider than the captured soldiers.”

When access
to truth
is just one
click away.
It's time to
stop pretending
that this war
began today.

The estimated death toll from the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon was 18,000, about 0.5 percent of the population. Twenty-four years later, I have yet to hear any sign of remorse emanating from Israeli society. Nor were there any reparations for the carnage wrought by the Israeli Army. When the Israeli press, politicians and intellectuals speak with regret about the “Lebanon War,” it is usually to say the cost to Israel was too high or to point out that the invasion failed to achieve its objectives. The Lebanese fatalities are rarely
discussed.

A joke went around during the civil war that it was safer to be a
target of the Israeli warplanes than to be exposed to the ineffectual
anti-aircraft fire directed against them. Lebanese bullets seemed certain to hit
you if you fled, whereas if you stayed put, the Israeli missiles would probably
land in your neighbor’s house, not yours.

Since then, air strikes have grown more precise and the Israeli Air Force appears to have expanded its range: planes now target your neighbor’s house and your own. Recent images from Lebanon are chillingly familiar — fathers watching their children die, mothers expiring in children’s laps. Dozens of stories like my grandmother’s are being re-enacted. Dozens of new graves are being dug.

An ancient city and a sovereign nation are being destroyed. The people of Haifa are suffering, too, and Hezbollah unquestionably bears responsibility for its raid on an Israeli military patrol, which began the latest violence. But the scale of suffering is imbalanced, and so is the apportionment of blame. It was the Israeli government, not Hezbollah, let alone the Lebanese government or people, that chose to start this all-out war.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/27/opinion/27el-zein.html

Or that just
one side's actions
came entirely
from the blue.
Truth is that
our ally
holds people
hostage too.

During the closed door session, diplomats said, Mr. Siniora gave a heartrending speech which left many in the room calling for immediate action.

“Is the value of human life less in Lebanon than that of citizens elsewhere?” Mr. Siniora asked. “Are we children of a lesser God? Is an Israeli teardrop worth more than a drop of Lebanese blood?”

Mr. Siniora said Lebanese will begin “legal proceedings” against Israel, and appeared to accuse Israel of war crimes. He said he would “spare no avenue to make Israel compensate the Lebanese people for the barbaric destruction it has inflicted on us.”

He ended his remarks with a quote from the Roman historian Tacitus, which he said describes well what Israel is doing to Lebanon and the region today.

“They created a desolation and call it peace,” Mr. Siniora said. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/26/world/middleeast/26cnd-mideast.html?hp&ex=1153972800&en=b97e4ffc38aef83a&ei=5094&partner=homepage

A number near
ten thousand,
women,
children, men
and many
are in limbo
uncharged,
unduly held.

More is at stake now than the fate of Lebanon. If the West does not persuade Israel to stop its attacks, that failure will add to a creeping sense that, in its fight with Islamic fundamentalism, the West has abandoned its claim to moral superiority based on respect for human rights and international law, and is pursuing instead a war based increasingly on tribal solidarity. What a tragedy this would be, especially for those of us who crave a modern, peaceful Middle East. And what a triumph for the varied strains of bin Ladenism — Muslim, Christian and Jewish alike.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/27/opinion/27el-zein.html

Hezbollah didn't wake up one morning and say let's snatch a couple of soldiers.…

It's important that we stop kidding ourselves. Hezbollah didn't wake up one morning and say let's snatch a couple of soldiers. Nor did history start a couple of ( going on three ) weeks ago.

If you think we should be proud of arming the assault on
Lebanon’s infrastructure and civilian neighborhoods, fine. If you are appalled,
or worried about how others view this, okay. In either case, you might want to
read on, because you won’t see much of this in your local paper.

Probably the most publicity this received lately came just
days ago when the U.S. announced it would be providing $30 million in relief aid
to Lebanon—while at the same time rushing new weapons to Israel. Asked if there
were a contradiction between U.S. arms sales to Israel and aid supplies to
Lebanon, U.S. Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman said Washington's position was based on
"two pillars to how we need to deal with the conflict. One pillar is
humanitarian assistance. ... The other is to find conditions for a sustainable
cease-fire."

Space does not allow a full accounting of U.S. arms
shipments to Israel in the past year, but to cite just one current budget line:
“100 Guided Bomb Units (GBU-28) that include: BLU-113 A/B penetration warhead.”
That only cost $30 million. Another budget line for $319 million cites “5,000
Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) tail kits.”

These can be dropped from the air by some of the 102 F-16
aircraft sent to Israel since 2001 (price tag: over $4.5 billion). And those
aircraft will stay in the air, thanks to emergency approval last week by the
U.S. for $210 million in JP-8 jet fuel to go to the Israeli military. Israel
also has from the U.S. over 700 M-60 tanks, 89 F-15 combat aircraft, missiles
and bombs of all kinds and scores of attack helicopters.

One of the more obscure items in that arsenal, however, came
to the fore this week, although it got little notice in the mainstream press.

Human Rights Watch, which has no dog in this fight – it has
storngly condemned the Hamas and Hizbollah rockets attacks, for example – issued
a bulletin on Monday, revealing that Israel has used artillery-fired "cluster"
bombs in populated areas of Lebanon, producing documented civilian casualties.
“Cluster munitions are unacceptably inaccurate and unreliable weapons when used
around civilians,” said Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch.
“They should never be used in populated areas.”

Newsweek online confirmed the report today, with photos,
adding, "Israel, under pressure from the United States, had not used cluster
munitions in Lebanon since 1982.
"

The cluster shells explode in the air and scatter hundreds
of tiny bomblets in a wide area. Because of the high "dud" rate for the
bomblets, civilians who step on them are killed months later.

Human Rights Watch researchers photographed cluster
munitions among the arsenal of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) artillery teams
stationed on the Israeli-Lebanese border on July 23. The photographs show M483A1
Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions which, of course, are U.S.-produced
and -supplied. Human Rights Watch "believes that the use of cluster munitions in
populated areas may violate the prohibition on indiscriminate attacks contained
in international humanitarian law,” it said in a statement, calling on Israel to
cease and desist. The group earlier established that the use of cluster
munitions in Iraq caused more civilian casualties than any other factor in the
early U.S.-led military operations in 2003.

But all of this leads to a final, perhaps hopeful, angle
underplayed by the press. That is: The fact that the U.S. is such a strong
patron potentially gives us enormous influence in pressuring Israel to exercise
restraint or accept a ceasefire. Newspaper editorial pages, which with rare
exception, shamefully gave Israel a blank check to bomb at will during the first
two weeks of the air assault, can make up for lost time now.
http://editorandpublisher.com/eandp/columns/pressingissues_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002914055&imw=Y

I wish I was as hopeful. America is stuck on the belief that only states can make war. It's been centuries since we had belifs strong enough to overcome the bonds of nation and home, but when we did, our jihadists, crusaders, gathered from every corner of christendom to free the holy lands. We no longer understand that kind of faith, but once we were the terrorists.

Not all christians joined the crusades, but those that didn't saw the crusaders as heroes willing to sacrifice their lives for the cause. Until we can give our enemies the same credit, we'll never talk to them. Until we talk, we can't settle grievances, theirs or ours. …

Wednesday, July 05, 2006

My Fourth

The fireflies
stream up from the ground
like roman candles.
The bottle rockets
stream up and around
like fireflies.

Mortars lift star shells
over the trees.
And, in every lull
the fireflies flash
like they're desperately,
crazily, trying to
communicate
with the fireworks,
make insectoid sense
out of the senseless
love of light
and noise.

On a normal night
they rise,
slowly, stately
toward the trees
sending their signals
to each other
calmly, carefully,
but not tonight.

They are confused
by Independence
and its illegal light.

Monday, June 26, 2006

Prophesying Doom?

'Wash Post' Obtains Shocking Memo from U.S. Embassy in Baghdad

By Greg Mitchell

Published: June 19, 2006 6:20 PM ET

-- "More recently, we have begun shredding documents printed out that show local staff surnames. In
March, a few staff members approached us to ask what provisions would we make for them if we evacuate."


NEW YORK The Washington Post has obtained a cable, marked "sensitive," that it says shows that just before President Bush left on a surprise trip last Monday to the Green Zone in Baghdad for an upbeat assessment of the situation there, "the U.S. Embassy in Iraq painted a starkly different portrait of increasing danger and hardship faced by its Iraqi employees."

This cable outlines, the Post reported Sunday, "the daily-worsening conditions for those who live outside the heavily guarded international zone: harassment, threats and the employees' constant fears that their neighbors will discover they work for the U.S. government."

-- Embassy employees are held in such low esteem their work must remain a secret and they live with
constant fear that their cover will be blown. Of nine staffers, only four have told their families where they work. They all plan for their possible abductions. No one takes home their cell phones as this gives them away. One employee said criticism of the U.S. had grown so severe that most of her family believes the U.S. "is punishing populations as Saddam did."

It's actually far worse than that, as the details published below indicate, which include references to abductions, threats to women's rights, and "ethnic cleansing."

A PDF copy of the cable shows that it was sent to the SecState in Washington, D.C. from "AMEmbassy Baghdad" on June 12. 2006. The typed name at the very bottom is Khalilzad -- the name of the U.S. Ambassador, though it is not known if this means he wrote the memo or merely approved it.

-- Since April, the "demeanor" of guards in the Green Zone has changed, becoming more "militia-like," and some are now "taunting" embassy personnel or holding up their credentials and saying loudly that they work in the embassy: "Such information is a death sentence if overheard by the wrong people." For this reason, some have asked for press instead of embassy credentials.

-- "For at least six months, we have not been able to use any local staff members for translation at on-camera press events....We cannot call employees in on weekends or holidays without blowing their 'cover.'"

-- "More recently, we have begun shredding documents printed out that show local staff surnames. In March, a few staff members approached us to ask what provisions would we make for them if we
evacuate."

The subject of the memo is: "Snapshots from the Office -- Public Affairs Staff Show Strains of Social Discord."

As a footnote in one of the 23 sections, the embassy relates, "An Arab newspaper editor told us he is preparing an extensive survey of ethnic cleansing, which he said is taking place in almost every Iraqi province, as political parties and their militiast are seemingly engaged in tit-for-tat reprisals all over Iraq."

Among the other troubling reports:

-- "Personal safety depends on good relations with the 'neighborhood' governments, who barricade streets and ward off outsiders. The central government, our staff says, is not relevant; even local mukhtars have been displaced or coopted by militias. People no longer trust most neighbors."

-- One embassy employee had a brother-in-law kidnapped. Another received a death threat, and then fled the country with her family.

-- Iraqi staff at the embassy, beginning in March and picking up in May, report "pervasive" harassment from Islamist and/or militia groups. Cuts in power and rising fuel prices "have diminished the quality of life." Conditions vary but even upscale neighborhoods "have visibly deteriorated" and one of them is now described as a "ghost town."

-- Two of the three female Iraqis in the public affairs office reported stepped-up harassment since mid-May...."some groups are pushing women to cover even their face, a step not taken in Iran even at its most conservative." One of the women is now wearing a full abaya after receiving direct threats.

-- It has also become "dangerous" for men to wear shorts in public and "they no longer allow their children to play outside in shorts." People who wear jeans in public have also come under attack. …

-- "More recently, we have begun shredding documents printed out that show local staff surnames. In March, a few staff members approached us to ask what provisions would we make for them if we evacuate."

-- The overall environment is one of "frayed social networks," with frequent actual or perceived insults. None of this is helped by lack of electricity. "One colleague told us he feels 'defeated' by circumstances, citing his example of being unable to help his two-year-old son who has asthma and cannot sleep in stifling heat," which is now reaching 115 degrees.

-- "Another employee tell us that life outside the Green Zone has become 'emotionally draining.' He lives in a mostly Shiite area and claims to attend a funeral 'every evening.'"

-- Fuel lines have grown so long that one staffer spent 12 hours in line on his day off. "Employees all confirm that by the last week of May, they were getting one hour of power for every six hours without. ... One staff member reported that a friend lives in a building that houses a new minister; within 24 hours of his appointment, her building had city power 24 hours a day."

-- The cable concludes that employees' "personal fears are reinforcing divisive sectarian or ethnic channels, despite talk of reconciliation by officials."

The final line of the Cable is: KHALILZAD

“Iraq is a sinkhole of destruction, and if Americans could see it close up, the way we saw New Orleans in the immediate aftermath of Katrina, they would be stupefied.

Americans need to understand that Mr. Bush's invasion of Iraq was a strategic blunder of the highest magnitude. It has resulted in mind-boggling levels of bloodshed, chaos and misery in Iraq, and it certainly hasn't made the U.S. any safer.

We've had enough clownish debates on the Senate floor and elsewhere. We've had enough muscle-flexing in the White House and on Capitol Hill by guys who ran and hid when they were young and their country was at war. And it's time to stop using generals and their forces under fire in the field for cheap partisan political purposes.

The question that needs to be answered, honestly and urgently (and without regard to partisan politics), is how best to extricate overstretched American troops — some of them serving their third or fourth tours — from the flaming quicksand of an unwinnable war. ”
Playing Politics With Iraq by Bob Herbert (TimeSelect)

Desert, not jungle. Splintered factions, instead of a unified enemy. This isn't Viet Nam, but the similarities are growing. Fear is growing, among the Iraqis who work for and with us. While the population at large, largely, distrusts us.

Thank God, that by and large, they don't trust the insurgents either.

The Taliban isn't just back. They're back in force. Attacking in company and possibly battalion sized units. They've got new tactics, IEDs and VBEDs ( improvised and vehicle borne explosive devices ), courtesy of the Iraq insurgency.

We're in danger of collapse in both the real (Afghan) and the phony (Iraqi) fronts of the war on terror, because we're enganged in a war on a tactic when we should be concentrating on the enemy who used it.

We've done exactly what the enemy wanted. Destroyed our own reputation and bolstered theirs. Even the capture and death of Zarkawi works in their favor.

Now, they can concentrate on attacks against us, instead of his counterproductive attacks against the Shia.

I suspect if they could have figured out a way to do it, Al Qaeda would have leaked Zarkawi's location to us. Jordanian intelligence made that unnecessary.

So, after wrecking our own stature, weakening our democracy, deprecating the Bill of Rights, what then Mr.(P)resident?…


http://editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002690071&imw=Y

Thursday, June 22, 2006

No Need To Be Informed When You're Born With The Answers

“In "The One Percent Doctrine," Mr. Suskind discloses that First Data Corporation — one of the world's largest processors of credit card transactions and the parent company of Western Union — began cooperating with the F.B.I. in the wake of 9/11, providing information on financial transactions and wire transfers from around the world. The huge data-gathering operation in some respects complemented the National Security Agency's domestic surveillance program (secretly authorized by Mr. Bush months after the Sept. 11 attacks), which monitored specific conversations as well as combed through large volumes of phone and Internet traffic in search of patterns that might lead to terrorism suspects.

Despite initial misgivings on the part of Western Union executives, Mr. Suskind reports, the company also worked with the C.I.A. and provided real-time information on financial transactions as they occurred.

Mr. Suskind's book also reveals that Qaeda operatives had designed a delivery system (which they called a "mubtakkar") for a lethal gas, and that the United States government had a Qaeda source who said that plans for a hydrogen cyanide attack on New York City's subway system were well under way in early 2003, but the attack was called off — for reasons that remain unclear — by Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. The book also reports that Al Qaeda had produced "extremely virulent" anthrax in Afghanistan before 9/11, which "could be easily reproduced to create a quantity that could be readily weaponized."

Just as disturbing as Al Qaeda's plans and capabilities are the descriptions of the Bush administration's handling of the war on terror and its willful determination to go to war against Iraq. That war, according to the author's sources who attended National Security Council briefings in 2002, was primarily waged "to make an example" of Saddam Hussein, to "create a demonstration model to guide the behavior of anyone with the temerity to acquire destructive weapons or, in any way, flout the authority of the United States."

"The One Percent Doctrine" amplifies an emerging portrait of the administration (depicted in a flurry of recent books by authors as disparate as the Reagan administration economist Bruce Bartlett and the former Coalition Provisional Authority adviser Larry Diamond) as one eager to circumvent traditional processes of policy development and policy review, and determined to use experts (whether in the C.I.A., the Treasury Department or the military) not to help formulate policy, but simply to sell predetermined initiatives to the American public.

Mr. Suskind writes that the war on terror gave the president and vice president "vast, creative prerogatives": "to do what they want, when they want to, for whatever reason they decide" and to "create whatever reality was convenient." The potent wartime authority granted the White House in the wake of 9/11, he says, dovetailed with the administration's pre-9/11 desire to amp up executive power (diminished, Mr. Cheney and others believed, by Watergate) and to impose "message discipline" on government staffers.

"The public, and Congress, acquiesced," Mr. Suskind notes, "with little real resistance, to a 'need to know' status — told only what they needed to know, with that determination made exclusively, and narrowly, by the White House." ”
‘’

Most of us didn't want to know.

So all of us got what most of us wanted.

That's a real problem when most of us amounts to the 50.01 percent of the minority of our electorate that atually bothers to vote. When the executive declares that bare minority majority to be a mandate, a constitutional crisis is all but unavoidable.


In "The One Percent Doctrine," he writes that Mr. Cheney's nickname inside the C.I.A. was Edgar (as in Edgar Bergen), casting Mr. Bush in the puppet role of Charlie McCarthy, and cites one instance after another in which the president was not fully briefed (or had failed to read the basic paperwork) about a
crucial situation.

During a November 2001 session with the president, Mr. Suskind recounts, a C.I.A. briefer realized that the Pentagon had not told Mr. Bush of the C.I.A.'s urgent concern that Osama bin Laden might escape from the Tora Bora area of Afghanistan (as he indeed later did) if United States reinforcements were not promptly sent in. And several months later, he says, attendees at a meeting between Mr. Bush and the Saudis discovered after the fact that an important packet laying out the Saudis' views about the Israeli-Palestinian situation had been diverted to the vice president's office and never reached the president.

Keeping information away from the president, Mr. Suskind argues, was a calculated White House strategy that gave Mr. Bush "plausible deniability" from Mr. Cheney's point of view, and that perfectly meshed with the commander in chief's own impatience with policy details. Suggesting that Mr. Bush
deliberately did not read the full National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, which was delivered to the White House in the fall of 2002, Mr. Suskind writes: "Keeping certain knowledge from Bush — much of it shrouded, as well, by classification — meant that the president, whose each word circles the globe,
could advance various strategies by saying whatever was needed. He could essentially be 'deniable' about his own statements."

Deniability metastisized

Need to use water torture on a suspect, but don't want to be a torturer?

Just redefine torture to exclude the coercive measures you've decided to apply.

How can anyone accuse you of breaking the law?

Don't they know the law is whatever the (p)resident says is law?

The recently retired war correspondent Joe Galloway describes the consequences of arrogance this way in his column last week on Haditha.

While he argued that any troops who committed crimes there must pay the price, much of the blame rests instead with officers who allowed it to happen and "political leaders" who have never "experienced the stress and insanity of combat, who took this nation to war in Iraq on a whim and a grudge."

Those who started the war, he added, have "managed it with the greatest accumulation of arrogance and ignorance and incompetence seen in wartime since World War I, or perhaps the Charge of the Light Brigade."

Then, this week, he observed that amid the current focus on Iraq, "no one appears to be noticing that Afghanistan...is heading south at an alarming pace."

He noted that "Mullah Omar's Taliban are on the comeback trail with a vengeance, operating in well-armed and disciplined battalion-size units in the south. Drawing on the experience of the Iraqi insurgents, the Taliban forces are employing more sophisticated improvised explosive devices as well as mines and ambushes against Afghan government forces and foreign military and aid officials.

"This is happening just a month before U.S. forces are scheduled to begin turning over responsibility for that volatile region to some of our NATO allies."

He then chronicled the errors in efforts to secure the situation after overthrowing the Taliban, caused by a White House "hell-bent on jumping off into a much higher-profile war in Iraq ....Before 2001 even ended, the administration began siphoning off some of the resources needed to finish Job One in Afghanistan to prepare for the invasion of Iraq.... Afghanistan would languish as a backwater, an afterthought, a 'victory' in the global war on terror to be trotted out occasionally to take people's minds off Iraq.

"If there was one place where we should have maintained full focus, it was Afghanistan. If there is one place where you never take your eye off the ball, it is Afghanistan. That's a lesson learned the hard way by invading armies from Alexander to the British Empire to the Soviet Union."

From Editor and Publisher http://editorandpublisher.com/eandp/columns/pressingissues_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002690039&imw=Y


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/20/books/20kaku.html?pagewanted=all

Monday, June 19, 2006

Gee, I Feel Safer Now, Don't You?

If they (a pair of treacherous bills ) had been in effect during the deadly spree of the Washington, D.C., snipers, the dealer who peddled the murder rifle and scores of other crime guns could never have been shut down under federal law.
“It is a ghastly fact of public safety that for the past three years the most basic information about illegal gun trafficking in America has been hermetically classified as a state secret — kept off limits to the public and the news media. The nation used to be told, for example, that 57 percent of crime guns came from just 1 percent of gun dealers, and something should be done about that. But — shhh — not any more: not since a malleable Congress and administration buttoned up reams of vital information by putting the privacy of unscrupulous gun dealers over the safety of the public.

And now the Republican-led House is preparing to make the secrecy restrictions even more lunatic by actually leaving police officers subject to felony conviction if they dare to share interesting data on illicit dealers with colleagues in other departments.

The criminalizing of peace officers for swapping federal data beyond their narrow jurisdictions is only one of the provisions in a pair of treacherous bills quietly on the move, in another sweeping triumph for the gun lobby. The bills would gut what is left of initiative in the hamstrung bureau that's supposed to control firearms. They would roll back laws for stopping illicit gun traffickers, water down criminal definitions and penalties, and snuff out the current notification to concerned police officials about the virtual fire sales of multiple guns to single buyers by dealers arming the underworld.”

Isn't it funny that the only amendment a republican congress won't attack in the name of counter-terrorism is the second amendment.

Soon, we won't have first, fourth or fifth amendmendt rights. We won't be able to speak out, protect our persons, property or posessions, be protected against self-incrimination or be free from coercion, but criminal gun sales will go on unimpeded by any consideration of risk, terrorism, common sense or right and wrong.

Feel safer now?

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

No Early Warning

Published: June 13, 2006

Cambridge, Mass.

“DEALING with the reported massacre of 24 civilians in Haditha, Iraq, last fall may actually turn out to be an easy case for the military. After all, American troops don't need refresher training to know that killing children at point-blank range is wrong.

The hard cases are the ones that happen nearly every day: these are the grindingly routine judgment calls, the snap decisions soldiers have to make when their foes (like suicide bombers) refuse to wear uniforms.

In the spiraling violence of Iraq, American troops are constantly learning on the job. Their actions must be closely monitored, especially the bellwether of civilian harm. Yet the military consistently denied the value of tracking civilian casualties. It therefore had no early warning system.

What's more, the military's institutional procedures helped keep the reality of abuses at a distance. The mechanism to make war more humane — the law of war — paradoxically limited understanding of war's impact.

Such a legalistic lens can create a blind spot. Investigations are not routine; they occur when the system suspects a problem. With civilian casualties invisible, it's harder to find a problem to suspect.

This spring, though, the military began investigating civilian deaths not simply to assess culpability but to enhance effectiveness. This groundbreaking approach builds on efforts, begun last year, to track incidents involving civilian harm at checkpoints and during convoys. Commanders were told to investigate the most serious of these incidents.

Why? To minimize civilian harm. The effort appears to have succeeded. Since January, Iraqi civilian deaths in these situations have been reduced from four to one per week. American forces have finally begun using meaningful metrics to improve their tactics and guard their professionalism.

If Haditha spurs outrage, it should be directed in the right place. Determining culpability is the best we can do after the fact. But prevention is a far better goal. The military didn't start analyzing checkpoint shootings until well into the war. Had it acted sooner, arithmetic suggests we could have spared hundreds of Iraqi lives.…

To learn from Haditha is to learn to notice not just the alleged massacres but the steady stream of civilian deaths that for too much of this war have remained invisible.

Sarah Sewall, director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, was deputy assistant secretary of defense from 1993 to 1996.”

Maybe, just maybe, we've stopped recruiting for the insurgency.…

Unfortunately, our problem hasn't been blindness, but an outright refusal to look.

Nor did the problem start in Haditha, but with the first massacre of Falluja. Where our troops may have honestly believed they were shot at, but the physical evidence established nothing but rock throwing.

Refusal to look led to the second massacre in Falluja and the third which was a massacre of Iraqi policemen, some at pointblank range and the phisical evidence as well as the survivors tales established that not one of them fired at our troops.

It doesn't take much imagination to see how that lead to the ambush and lynching of the contractors, and the first and second battles of Falluja.

Maybe, finally, we've stopped ignoring reality.

Maybe, just maybe, we've stopped recruiting for the insurgency.…

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/13/opinion/13sewall.html

Sunday, June 04, 2006

Persons, Houses, Papers and Effects

Once Again It's Legal Because Bush Says It Is


Reaching into homes and businesses across the nation, amassing information about the calls of ordinary Americans — most of whom aren't suspected of any crime. The NSA program does not involve the NSA listening to or recording conversations. The spy agency claims to be using the data to analyze calling patterns in an effort to detect terrorist activity.


"It's the largest database ever assembled in the world," said one person, who, like the others who agreed to talk about the NSA's activities, declined to be identified by name or affiliation. The agency's goal is "to create a database of every call ever made" within the nation's borders, this person added.


Last year, Bush authorized the NSA to eavesdrop — without warrants — on international calls and international e-mails of people suspected of having links to terrorists when one party to the communication is in the USA. Nor have warrants been used in the NSA's efforts to create a national call database.


According to the President the NSA is focused exclusively on international calls. "In other words," Bush explained, "one end of the communication must be outside the United States." Domestic call records — those of calls that originate and terminate within U.S. borders — were by implication private.


The implication is not the case. Through records of billions of domestic calls, the NSA has a window into the habits of millions of Americans. Names and other personal information are, supposedly, not being handed over , but the records can be cross-referenced with other databases to obtain that information.


"There is no domestic surveillance without court approval," said Dana Perino, White House deputy press secretary, referring to actual eavesdropping.


She added that all national intelligence activities undertaken by the federal government "are lawful, necessary and required for the pursuit of al-Qaeda and affiliated terrorists." All government-sponsored intelligence activities "are carefully reviewed and monitored," Perino said. She also noted that "all appropriate members of Congress have been briefed on the intelligence efforts of the United States."


Unfortunately, the reviewing and monitoring are being done by the same people who are collecting and using the information. You have to judge how likely it is that they'll find their own actions unlawful.


The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.


Do you think the Fourth Amendment ranks very high on their agenda?


Maybe, since they're not seeking warrants, or swearing any oaths, nor particularly describing places to be searched or persons and things to be siezed, they think they're complying with the Constitution, in the breach and by omission, collecting "external" data on domestic phone calls but not intercepting "internals," the actual content of the communication. Data collection from phone companies is not uncommon; it's been done before. The data are used for "social network analysis," to study how terrorist networks contact each other and how they are tied together.

Do you think they need billions of records, of millions of citizens to analyze those networks?


Are we all suspect, until proven loyal to the President?


And can someone tell me why there are three hundred and twenty-five thousand names on the terrorist watch list?


Or why it includes U.S. Senators, infants and senior citizens not charged, chargeable or even suspected of any crime at all?


The only hole in the NSA's database may be Qwest's refusal to participate. Qwest provides local phone service to 14 million customers in 14 states in the West and Northwest. But AT&T and Verizon also provide some services — primarily long-distance and wireless — to people who live in Qwest's region. Therefore, they can provide the NSA with at least some access in that area.


The NSA is charged with protecting the United States from foreign security threats. Once the agency was so secret the government refused to even confirm its existence. Insiders joked that NSA stood for "No Such Agency."


In 1975 congressional investigation revealed that the NSA had been intercepting, without warrants, international communications for more than 20 years at the behest of the CIA and other agencies. The spy campaign, code-named "Shamrock," led to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which was designed to protect Americans from illegal eavesdropping.


Enacted in 1978, FISA lays out procedures that the U.S. government must follow to conduct electronic surveillance and physical searches of people believed to be engaged in espionage or international terrorism against the United States. A special court, which has 11 members, is responsible for adjudicating requests under FISA.


Code-breaking has continued to improve in parallel with technology. Today the agency is expert in the practice of "data mining" — sifting through reams of information in search of patterns — one of many tools analysts and mathematicians use to crack codes and track communications.


Paul Butler, a former U.S. prosecutor who specialized in terrorism crimes, said FISA approval generally isn't necessary for government data-mining operations. "FISA does not prohibit the government from doing data mining," said Butler, now a partner with the law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld in Washington, D.C.


The caveat, he said, is that "personal identifiers" — such as names, Social Security numbers and street addresses — can't be included as part of the search. "That requires an additional level of probable cause," he said.


The usefulness of the domestic phone-call database as a counterterrorism tool is unclear. Also unclear is whether the database has been used for other purposes.


They probably, lawfully, had the information needed on September 10, 2006 to thwart the attack on September 11th . What they didn't have were enough arabic, pashto, and farsi speaking analysts. Despite all warnings, despite previous attacks, they didn't take a band of fanatics seriously.


And still don't. We're so busy worrying about governments that the Taliban is resurgent in Afghanistan and insurgents have free reign from Iraq to Pakistan, from Madrid ,to Mogadishu, to the London subway system.


Local and regional phone companies have, in the past, required law enforcement agencies to present a court order before they would consider turning over a customer's calling data. That was innate in the personality of the old Bell Telephone System, out of which those companies grew.




NEW YORK -- Former National Security Agency director Bobby Ray Inman lashed out at the Bush administration Monday night over its continued use of warrantless domestic wiretaps, making him one of the highest-ranking former intelligence officials to criticize the program in public, analysts say.


"This activity is not authorized," Inman said, as part of a panel discussion on eavesdropping that was sponsored by The New York Public Library. The Bush administration "need(s) to get away from the idea that they can continue doing it."


Since the NSA eavesdropping program was unveiled in December, Inman -- like other senior members of the intelligence community -- has been measured in the public statements he's made about the agency he headed under President Jimmy Carter. He maintained that his former colleagues "only act in accordance with law." When asked whether the president had the legal authority to order the surveillance, Inman replied in December, "Someone else would have to give you the good answer."


But sitting in a brightly lit basement auditorium at the library next to James Risen, the New York Times reporter who broke the surveillance story, Inman's tone changed. He called on the president to "walk into the modern world" and change the law governing the wiretaps -- or abandon the program altogether.


"The program has drawn a lot of criticism, but thus far former military and intelligence officials have not spoken up. To have Adm. Inman -- the former head of the NSA -- (come) forward with this critique is significant," said Patrick Radden Keefe, author of Chatter: Dispatches From the Secret World of Global Eavesdropping, who sat on the panel with Inman and Risen. "Because of the secrecy surrounding this type of activity, much of the criticism has come from outsiders who don't have a firm grasp of the mechanics and the utility of electronic intelligence. Inman knows whereof he speaks."


In 1978, Inman helped spearhead the effort to pass the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, which makes it illegal to eavesdrop on American citizens without court approval. Inman said he wouldn't have a problem sidestepping that law -- as a "limited response to an emergency situation," like the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But nearly five years since those strikes, the NSA is continuing to track phone calls and e-mails without warrants.


Inman didn't contest the Bush administration's claim that the FISA courts can't keep up with the NSA's new breed of surveillance. "My problem is not going to Congress to revise the statute to deal with the problems I didn't think of in '78," Inman said. "We can do what the country needs and work within the law."


The bedrock principle — protection of the customer — guided the company for decades. Gene Kimmelman, senior public policy director of Consumers Union said, "No court order, no customer information — period. That's how it was for decades."


Concern was based on law: Under Section 222 of the Communications Act, first passed in 1934, telephone companies are prohibited from giving out information regarding their customers' calling habits: whom a person calls, how often and what routes those calls take to reach their final destination. Inbound calls, as well as wireless calls, also are covered.


The financial penalties for violating Section 222 can be stiff. The Federal Communications Commission, the nation's top telecommunications regulatory agency, can levy fines of up to $130,000 per day per violation, with a cap of $1.325 million per violation. The FCC has no hard definition of "violation." In practice, that means a single "violation" could cover one customer or 1 million.


NSA representatives approached the nation's biggest telecommunications companies soon after the Sept. 11 attacks. The agency made an urgent pitch: National security is at risk, and we need your help to protect the country from attacks.They were told that it wanted their "call-detail records," a complete listing of the calling histories of their millions of customers. Plus, the NSA wanted the carriers to provide updates, which would enable the agency to keep tabs on the nation's calling habits.


Joe Nacchio, Qwest's CEO at the time, was extremely troubled by the NSA's claim that Qwest didn't need a court's order or approval — under FISA. Qwest was unsure about who would access its customers' information and how their information might be used.


Financial consequences were also a concern. Illegally divulging calling information can be subject to heavy fines. The NSA was asking Qwest to turn over millions of records. The fines could be enormous.


Other government agencies, including the FBI, CIA and DEA, might also have access to the data. The NSA regularly shares information — known as "product" in intelligence circles — with other intelligence groups. Qwest's lawyers were worried by the extent of the NSA request.


To pressure Qwest, NSA representatives told Qwest that it was the lone holdout among the major telecommunications companies. It tried appealing to Qwest's patriotic side: In one meeting, an NSA representative suggested that Qwest's refusal to contribute to the database could compromise national security, then suggested that Qwest's foot-dragging could affect its ability to get future classified work with the government. Qwest had classified contracts and hoped to get more.


Qwest's lawyers asked NSA to take its proposal to the FISA court. The agency refused. "They told (Qwest) they didn't want to do that because FISA might not agree with them," one person recalled. For similar reasons, this person said, NSA rejected Qwest's suggestion of getting a letter of authorization from the U.S. attorney general's office. A second person confirmed this version of events.”


The NSA record collection program


Excerpts From: Why Data Mining Won't Stop Terror

By Bruce Schneier
Wired News
March 9, 2005

…Many believe data mining is the crystal ball that will enable us to uncover future terrorist plots. But even in the most wildly optimistic projections, data mining isn't tenable for that purpose. We're not trading privacy for security; we're giving up privacy and getting no security in return.

Most people first learned about data mining in November 2002, when news broke about a massive government data mining program called Total Information Awareness. The basic idea was as audacious as it was repellent: suck up as much data as possible about everyone, sift through it with massive computers, and investigate patterns that might indicate terrorist plots.

Americans across the political spectrum denounced the program, and in September 2003, Congress eliminated its funding and closed its offices.

But TIA didn't die. According to The National Journal, it just changed its name and moved inside the Defense Department.

This shouldn't be a surprise. In May 2004, the General Accounting Office published a report (.pdf) listing 122 different federal government data-mining programs that used people's personal information. This list didn't include classified programs, like the NSA's eavesdropping effort or state-run programs like MATRIX.

The promise of data mining is compelling, and convinces many. But it's wrong. We're not going to find terrorist plots through systems like this, and we're going to waste valuable resources chasing down false alarms. To understand why, we have to look at the economics of the system.

Security is always a trade-off, and for a system to be worthwhile, the advantages have to be greater than the disadvantages. A national security data-mining program is going to find some percentage of real attacks and some percentage of false alarms. If the benefits of finding and stopping those attacks outweigh the cost -- in money, liberties, etc. -- then the system is a good one. If not, you'd be better off spending that capital elsewhere.

Data mining works best when you're searching for a well-defined profile, a reasonable number of attacks per year and a low cost of false alarms. Credit-card fraud is one of data mining's success stories: all credit-card companies mine their transaction databases for data for spending patterns that indicate a stolen card.

Many credit-card thieves share a pattern -- purchase expensive luxury goods, purchase things that can be easily fenced, etc. -- and data mining systems can minimize the losses in many cases by shutting down the card. In addition, the cost of false alarms is only a phone call to the cardholder asking him to verify a couple of purchases. The cardholders don't even resent these phone calls -- as long as they're infrequent -- so the cost is just a few minutes of operator time.

Terrorist plots are different. There is no well-defined profile and attacks are very rare. Taken together, these facts mean that data-mining systems won't uncover any terrorist plots until they are very accurate, and that even very accurate systems will be so flooded with false alarms that they will be useless.

All data-mining systems fail in two different ways: false positives and false negatives. A false positive is when the system identifies a terrorist plot that really isn't one. A false negative is when the system misses an actual terrorist plot. Depending on how you "tune" your detection algorithms, you can err on one side or the other: you can increase the number of false positives to ensure you are less likely to miss an actual terrorist plot, or you can reduce the number of false positives at the expense of missing terrorist plots.

To reduce both those numbers, you need a well-defined profile. And that's a problem when it comes to terrorism. In hindsight, it was really easy to connect the 9/11 dots and point to the warning signs, but it's much harder before the fact. Certainly, many terrorist plots share common warning signs, but each is unique, as well. The better you can define what you're looking for, the better your results will be. Data mining for terrorist plots will be sloppy, and it'll be hard to find anything useful.

Data mining is like searching for a needle in a haystack. There are 900 million credit cards in circulation in the United States. According to the FTC September 2003 Identity Theft Survey Report, about 1 percent (10 million) cards are stolen and fraudulently used each year.

When it comes to terrorism, however, trillions of connections exist between people and events -- things that the data-mining system will have to "look at" -- and very few plots. This rarity makes even accurate identification systems useless.

Let's look at some numbers. We'll be optimistic -- we'll assume the system has a one in 100 false-positive rate (99 percent accurate), and a one in 1,000 false-negative rate (99.9 percent accurate). Assume 1 trillion possible indicators to sift through: that's about 10 events -- e-mails, phone calls, purchases, web destinations, whatever -- per person in the United States per day. Also assume that 10 of them are actually terrorists plotting.

This unrealistically accurate system will generate 1 billion false alarms for every real terrorist plot it uncovers. Every day of every year, the police will have to investigate 27 million potential plots in order to find the one real terrorist plot per month. Raise that false-positive accuracy to an absurd 99.9999 percent and you're still chasing 2,750 false alarms per day -- but that will inevitably raise your false negatives, and you're going to miss some of those 10 real plots.

… In statistics, it's called the "base rate fallacy," and it applies in other domains as well. For example, even highly accurate medical tests are useless as diagnostic tools if the incidence of the disease is rare in the general population. Terrorist attacks are also rare, any "test" is going to result in an endless stream of false alarms.

This is exactly the sort of thing we saw with the NSA's eavesdropping program: the New York Times reported that the computers spat out thousands of tips per month. Every one of them turned out to be a false alarm.

And the cost was enormous -- not just for the FBI agents running around chasing dead-end leads instead of doing things that might actually make us safer, but also the cost in civil liberties.…

Data mining can work. It helps Visa keep the costs of fraud down, just as it helps Amazon alert me to books I might want to buy and Google show me advertising I'm more likely to be interested in. But these are all instances where the cost of false positives is low (a phone call from a Visa operator or an uninteresting ad) in systems that have value even if there is a high number of false negatives.

Finding terrorism plots is not a problem that lends itself to data mining. It's a needle-in-a-haystack problem, and throwing more hay on the pile doesn't make that problem any easier. We'd be far better off putting people in charge of investigating potential plots and letting them direct the computers, instead of putting the computers in charge and letting them decide who should be investigated.

The Total Information Awareness Project Lives On

Technology behind the Pentagon's controversial data-mining project has been acquired by NSA, and is probably in use.

By Mark Williams

In April, the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), the advocacy organization for citizens' digital rights, filed evidence to support its class-action lawsuit alleging that telecom giant AT&T gave the National Security Agency (NSA), the ultra-secret U.S. agency that's the world's largest espionage organization, unfettered access to Americans' telephone and Internet communications. The lawsuit is one more episode in the public controversy that erupted in December 2005, when the New York Times revealed that, following September 11, President Bush authorized a far-reaching NSA surveillance program that included warrantless electronic eavesdropping on telephone calls and e-mails of individuals within the United States.

Critics charged that the Bush administration had violated both the Constitution's Fourth Amendment, which protects citizens against unwarranted search or seizure, and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) of 1978, which requires eavesdropping warrants to be obtained from a special court of judges empowered for that purpose.

In February 2006, the controversy intensified. Reports emerged that component technologies of the supposedly defunct Total Information Awareness (TIA) project -- established in 2002 by the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to develop advanced information technology to counter terrorists, then terminated by Congress in 2003 because of widespread criticism that it would create "Orwellian" mass surveillance -- had been acquired by the NSA.

Washington's lawmakers ostensibly killed the TIA project in Section 8131 of the Department of Defense Appropriations Act for fiscal 2004. But legislators wrote a classified annex to that document which preserved funding for TIA's component technologies, if they were transferred to other government agencies, say sources who have seen the document, according to reports first published in The National Journal. Congress did stipulate that those technologies should only be used for military or foreign intelligence purposes against non-U.S. citizens. Still, while those component projects' names were changed, their funding remained intact, sometimes under the same contracts.

Thus, two principal components of the overall TIA project have migrated to the Advanced Research and Development Activity (ARDA), which is housed somewhere among the 60-odd buildings of "Crypto City," as NSA headquarters in Fort Meade, MD, is nicknamed. One of the TIA components that ARDA acquired, the Information Awareness Prototype System, was the core architecture that would have integrated all the information extraction, analysis, and dissemination tools developed under TIA. According to The National Journal, it was renamed "Basketball." The other, Genoa II, used information technologies to help analysts and decision makers anticipate and pre-empt terrorist attacks. It was renamed "Topsail."

Has the NSA been employing those TIA technologies in its surveillance within the United States? And what exactly is the agency doing, anyway?

The hearings that the Senate Judiciary Committee convened in February to consider the NSA's surveillance gave some clues. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, maintaining the administration's defense against charges that it violated the Fourth Amendment and FISA, told senators, firstly, that Article II of the U.S. Constitution granted a president authority to conduct such monitoring and, secondly, that the Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF) passed after September 11 specified that the president could "use all necessary and appropriate force" to prevent future terrorist acts. Regarding FISA, Gonzalez claimed, the NSA had sidestepped its requirements to obtain warrants for electronic eavesdropping in particular cases. But, overall, the attorney general said, FISA worked well and the authorities had used it increasingly. The available facts support Gonzalez's contention: while the FISA court issued about 500 warrants per year from 1979 through 1995, in 2004 (the last year for which public records exist) 1,758 warrants were issued.


But when senators asked why, given the fact that FISA had provisions by which government agents could wiretap first and seek warrants later, the Bush administration had sidestepped its requirements at all, Gonzalez claimed he couldn't elaborate for reasons of national security.

Former NASA director General Michael Hayden, in charge when the NSA's surveillance program was initiated in 2002, was slightly more forthcoming. FISA wasn't applicable in certain cases, he told the senators, because the NSA's surveillance relied on what he called a "subtly softer trigger" before full-scale eavesdropping began. Hayden, who is nowadays the nation's second-highest ranking intelligence official, as deputy director of national intelligence, said he could answer further questions only in closed session.

… testimony that the government is making increased use of FISA, together with his refusal to explain why it's inapplicable in some cases -- even though retroactive warrants can be issued -- implies that the issue isn't simply that government agents may sometimes want to act quickly. FISA rules demand that
old-fashioned "probable cause" be shown before the FISA court issues warrants for electronic surveillance of a specific individual. Probable cause would be inapplicable if NSA were engaged in the automated analysis and data mining of telephone and e-mail communications in order to target possible terrorism suspects.

… NSA has access to the switches and records of most or all of the nation's leading telecommunications companies. These companies' resources are extensive:

AT&T's data center in Kansas, for instance, contains electronic records of 1.92 trillion telephone calls over several decades.

… the majority of international telecommunications nowadays no longer travel by satellite, but by undersea fiber-optic cables, so many carriers route international calls through their domestic U.S. switches.

With the companies' compliance, the NSA can tap into those international communications far more easily than in the past, and in real time (or close to it). The NSA's supercomputers can digitally vacuum up every call placed on a network and apply an arsenal of data-mining tools.

Traffic analysis, together with social network theory, can, in theory, reveal patterns indiscernible to human analysts, possibly suggesting terrorist activity. Content filtering, applying highly sophisticated search algorithms and powerful statistical methods like Bayesian analysis in tandem with machine learning, can search for particular words or language combinations that may, in theory, indicate terrorist communications.

In practice … they produce massive watch lists and time wasting false alarms.

Whether the specific technologies developed under TIA and acquired by ARDA have actually been used in the NSA's domestic surveillance programs -- rather than only for intelligence gathering overseas -- has not been proved. Descriptions of the two former TIA programs that became Topsail and Basketball mirror descriptions of ARDA and NSA technologies for analyzing vast streams of telephone and e-mail communications. One project manager active in the TIA program before it was terminated has gone on record to the effect that, while TIA was still funded, its researchers communicated regularly and maintained "good coordination" with their ARDA counterparts.

This is the point. Whether or not those specific TIA technologies were deployed for domestic U.S. surveillance, technologies very much like them were. In 2002 ARDA awarded $64 million in research contracts for a new program called Novel Intelligence from Massive Data. A 2004 survey by the U.S. General Accounting Office, an investigative arm of Congress, found federal agencies operating or developing 199 data mining projects, with more than 120 programs designed to collect and analyze large amounts of personal data on individuals to predict their behavior. The accounting office excluded most of the classified projects, so the actual numbers would have been higher.


And, there exist all the data-mining applications currently employed in the private sector for purposes like detecting credit card fraud or predicting health risks for insurance. All of that information goes into databases which, given sufficient government motivation or even the normal mission creep, may sooner or later be accessible to the authorities.

How should data-mining technologies like TIA be applied in a democracy? It makes little sense to insist on rigid interpretations of the FISA law was passed by Congress 30 years ago. Terrorist threats on al Qaeda's scale did not exist and technological developments hadn't given unprecedented destructive power to small groups and individuals.…

In an essay published next month in the New York University Review of Law and Security, titled "Whispering Wires and Warrantless Wiretaps: Data Mining and Foreign Intelligence Surveillance," K. Taipale, executive director of the Center for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology Policy, points out that in 1978, when FISA was drafted, it made sense to speak exclusively about intercepting a targeted communication, where there were usually two known ends and a dedicated communication channel that could be wiretapped.

Today data, and increasingly voice communications, are broken into discrete packets. Intercepting such communications requires that filters be deployed at various communication nodes to scan all passing traffic with the hope of finding and extracting the packets of interest and reassembling them. Even targeting a specific message from a known sender today generally requires scanning and filtering the entire communication flow in which it's embedded. Given that situation, Taipale argues, were FISA to be "applied strictly according to its terms prior to any 'electronic surveillance' of foreign communication flows passing through the U.S. or where there is a substantial likelihood of intercepting U.S. persons, then no automated monitoring of any kind could occur."

Taipale, but not the Bush administration, proposes not that FISA should be modified to allow for the electronic surveillance equivalent of a Terry stop -- under U.S. law, the brief "stop and frisk" of a person by a law enforcement officer based on the legal standard of reasonable suspicion. In the context of automated data mining, it would mean that if suspicion turned out to be unjustified, after further monitoring, it would be discontinued. If, on the other hand, continued suspicion was reasonable, then it would continue, and at a certain point be escalated so that human agents would be called in to decide whether a suspicious individual's identity should be determined and a FISA warrant issued.

Of course, that turns the Bill of Rights on its head.

To attempt to maintain FISA and the rest of our current laws about privacy without modifications to address today's changed technological context, Taipale insists, amounts to a kind of absolutism that is ultimately self-defeating. For example, one of the technologies in the original TIA project, the Genisys Privacy Protection program, was intended to enable greater access to data for security reasons while simultaneously protecting individuals' privacy by providing critical data to analysts via anonymized transaction data and by exposing identity only if evidence and appropriate authorization was obtained for further investigation. Ironically, Genisys was the one technology that definitely had its funding terminated and was not continued by another government agency after the public outcry over TIA.

Home page image is available under GNU Free Documentation License 1.2. Caption: Original logo of the now-defunct Total Information Awareness Office, which drew much criticism for its "spooky" images.

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Joe Galloway is Retiring

Joe Galloway, Nearing Retirement, Hits Rumsfeld in E-mails

A series of combative and revealing emails between Galloway and chief Pentagon spokesman Larry DiRita concerning Donald Rumsfeld’s management of the military and the Iraq war have surfaced which cut to the heart of the country’s current trauma. Retired General Barry McCaffery, a familiar figure nowadays as a cable news commentator, urged Galloway to release the emails, calling them “the most powerful stuff hands down I have ever read about this war. ...this exchange ought to be your going away gift to the capital.”

It all began on April 26, with a typically toughminded Galloway column. It profiled retired Marine Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, who commanded both the Marine War College at Quantico, Va., and the National War College in Washington before retiring in 1997. Galloway recalled that Van Riper had told an interviewer in October 2004 that the military got the lessons all wrong after World War II and that mistake resulted in two disasters -- Korea and Vietnam.

"My great fear is we're off to something very similar to what happened after World War II, that is getting it completely wrong again," Van Riper said of Iraq. But Van Riper saved his strongest criticism for the Pentagon boss. "Mr. Rumsfeld has failed 360 degrees in the job. He is incompetent," Van Riper concluded. "Any military man who made the mistakes he has made, tactically and strategically, would be relieved on the spot."

Two days later, Rumsfeld's top spokesman, DiRita, fired off a reply to his friend Galloway (original spelling and typography retained in all emails that follow): “Let's at least be honest about this: there is a lot of change taking place, and that change forces people to re-examine the way we have always done things,” he wrote. “That is bumpy, and that can make people anxious. ... Van Riper has never even met the secretary to my knowledge. For him to make such sweeping comments as he did in your piece is just irresponsible.

“You're just becoming a johnny one-note and it's only a couple of steps from that to curmudgeon!!”

-- Galloway replied in an email: “i've always understood that the guy in charge takes the fall for everything that goes wrong on his watch. this is why the u.s. navy courtmartials the captain of any ship that is involved in an accident or is sunk for whatever reason….Last I knew Mr. Rumsfeld was the Secretary of Defense. He has the ultimate responsibility….”

"there are many things we all could wish had happened. i can wish that your boss had surrounded himself with close advisers who had, once at least, held a dying boy in their arms and watched the life run out of his eyes while they lied to him and told him, over and over, ‘You are going to be all right. Hang on! Help is coming. Don't quit now...’ Such men in place of those who had never known service or combat or the true cost of war, and who pays that price, and had never sent their children off to do that hard and unending duty.

“i could wish for so much. i could wish that in january of this year i had not stood in a garbage-strewn pit, in deep mud, and watched soldiers tear apart the wreckage of a kiowa warrior shot down just minutes before and tenderly remove the barely alive body of WO Kyle Jackson and the lifeless body of his fellow pilot. they died flying overhead cover for a little three-vehicle Stryker patrol with which i was riding at the time. i could wish that Jackson's widow Betsy had not found, among the possessions of her late husband, a copy of my book, carefully earmarked at a chapter titled Brave Aviators, which Kyle was reading at the time of his death. That she had not enclosed a photo of her husband, herself and a 3 year old baby girl.

“those things i received in the mail yesterday and they brought back the tears that i wept standing there in that pit, feeling the same shards in my heart that i felt the first time i looked into the face of a fallen american soldier 41 years ago on a barren hill in Quang Ngai Province in another time, another war. someone once asked me if i had learned anything from going to war so many times. my reply: yes, i learned how to cry.”

“you can sit there all day telling me that pigs can fly, with or without lipstick, and i am not going to believe it. seemingly the reverse is also true. one of us is dead wrong and i have a good hunch that it would be you. you go flying blind through that forest and you are going to find those trees for sure.

There's a video of an ambush in the Washington Post, raw video of an attack on a convoy that Post Reporter Nelson Hernandez was traveling with in Iraq. The convoy had just delivered new water trucks to the water agency in Baghdad when they came under attack by insurgents. They were ambushed after they had made their delivery.

Ambushed at the point of successful delivery!

At the very place where, finally, they should have been safe!

They're celebrating again at the White House. The Taliban is back in southern Afghanistan, Bin Laden's still free, the insurgents are stronger in Iraq, but, American journalists hardly ever leave the Green Zone. Fewer and fewer, of these pictures will be taken. Fewer of those will make the evening news. For an administration in love with secrecy that's probably reason enough to celebrate.

Monday, May 01, 2006

When Did We Stop Believing (In Opportunity)?

Why did we stop?

“…among the top tier of private liberal-arts institutions, application rates have grown by one-third or more during the last five years alone. Meanwhile, the available spaces have remained the same and the number of high school seniors, the baby boomers' baby boom, has hit its peak.

Beneath all the statistics lies a widely heeded yet thoroughly unexamined truism — that the student who does not get into Stanford or Yale, or at least Emory or Skidmore, will lose out in the contest for the supposedly finite amount of opportunity in America.”

Not so long ago even those totally locked out of the American Dream believed the opportunities were real and abundant. A dreamer dared dream that ‘one day’ his ‘little children’ would ‘be judged not by the color of their skin but the content of their character.’

That dream has not only eluded our grasp, but seems about to escape the American imagination. No one out of power or in believes there's a slice of the pie for everyone. Those with the resources or power to apportion, make sure they get their piece.

So NASA had to redirect half of its planned education spending, 5 percent of its exploration systems budget and 4 percent of its science budget to Congressional vanity. The Department of Homeland Security, as part of the budget law passed last year, was ordered to hire the American Association of Airport Executives, an aviation trade group, to process applications for a new tamper-proof identification card for maritime workers.

…judging from revelations that hordes of greedy senators and representatives have siphoned more than half a billion dollars from NASA's budget for the 2006 fiscal year to finance pet projects

Documents have circulated in Washington showing that the association, before the budget bill became law, was offering prospective investors a role in future contracts in exchange for an investment totaling up to $25 million. While the prospectus mentioned the identity card contract, it made no reference to the legislation.

The money would be used to set up a for-profit company that the group would hire as a subcontractor to handle the soon-to-be promised government work.

The contracts with Homeland Security would produce $50 million in profits over three years for the new partnership, the business plan projected. Daon, an Irish biometrics company with offices in Reston, Va., ultimately bought 51 percent control of the new entity, said Andrew J. Sherman, a Washington lawyer who helped handle the transaction.

Government records show that the new company, the Security Biometric Clearing Network, was incorporated last month in Delaware. Daon's board includes Tom Ridge, the former Homeland Security secretary, and the company has already sold its software to the government for some of these same programs.

…One thing is obvious, these people have their thumbs on the scale, and they're making sure some people get to skim the cash register while promising the rest of us a day's wages for a week's work.

It's easy to believe they're monsters, but the deviation in their moral compass is caused by the their deep belief that there's not enough of anything to go around. Somebody's going to do without, and it's not going to be them or theirs.

In 1968 they slew the dreamer. Since Inauguration day in 2001, they've been killing the dream. Budget cut, tax cut, you don't have to slice an artery or reach a vital organ, if you nick enough veins.…

Friday, April 07, 2006

Hurricane Relief From Abroad Was Mishandled

“WASHINGTON, April 6 — Confusion over how to handle the emergency supplies, offers of military assistance and $126 million in cash that poured in from foreign governments after Hurricane Katrina meant delays, and in some cases wasted opportunities, in aiding storm victims, federal officials acknowledged Thursday.…

Thousands of ready-to-eat meals donated by governments, as well as loads of medicine, were never used, because officials learned only after they arrived in the United States that they did not meet federal health standards. Instead of distributing the supplies, the federal government spent $60,000 to store them.

Of the $126 million in cash donations received, only about $10.5 million has been spent. Nearly half sat in a noninterest-bearing account until last month, when it was transferred to the Department of Education for a grant program to help damaged schools and colleges, although no grants have yet been awarded.…

The cash donations and emergency supplies — including food, clothing, blankets, tents and medicine — came in from nations, companies, individuals and organizations from around the globe. The single biggest source, representing three-quarters of the total cash received, was the United Arab Emirates, which contributed $100 million, according to the State Department.

The United States, at least in modern times, had never received such a large outpouring of foreign aid and no formal process existed to evaluate the offers, officials from the State Department and FEMA testified Thursday.

The Defense Department designated an Air Force base in Arkansas to receive deliveries from overseas and then the Agency for International Development, a State Department agency that usually handles foreign aid, was asked to work with FEMA on distribution.

Casey Long, acting director of the Office of International Affairs at FEMA, testified that 143 truckloads of international donations had ultimately been sent to distribution centers in Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, Texas and Arkansas.

But Davi M. D'Agostino, an investigator from the Government Accountability Office, said FEMA could not provide documentation that the goods ever reached hurricane victims or emergency workers.…”

This should be comment enough.

This should be evidence enough.

There is nothing this current administration won't misrepresent. There is nothing they don't have to misrepresent, because there is nothing they've done competently, and nothing they've done right.

Their claim is that they, unlike their opponents have a plan, but an agenda is not a plan. Plans have stages. Plans have timelines. Plans have requirements. Plans change when goals are unmet. When resources change, plans change. They change nature and scope as the situations theyaddress change.

This administration has never had a plan, could never tolerate a plan. So there never has nor will there ever be a plan.

Not for Katrina.

Not for Iraq or Afghanistan.

Not for today, yesterday or tomorrow.

But, boy do they have an agenda. One size fits them.

They don't have a problem, so you have no business seeing any.

How do you like the President's same old new clothes?…


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/07/us/nationalspecial/07katrina.html

Sunday, April 02, 2006

The Economics of Hardly Finding Work - Hyphenated Americans Need Not Apply

Immigrants and the Economics of Hard Work - New York Times :

“IT is asserted both as fact and as argument: the United States needs a constant flow of immigrants to perform jobs Americans will not stoop to do.

But what if those jobs paid $50 an hour, with benefits, instead of $7 or $10 or $15?

"Of course there are jobs that few Americans will take because the wages and working conditions have been so degraded by employers," said Jared Bernstein, of the liberal Economic Policy Institute. "But there is nothing about landscaping, food processing, meat cutting or construction that would preclude someone from doing these jobs on the basis of their nativity. Nothing would keep anyone, immigrant or native born, from doing them if they paid better, if they had health care."

The most comprehensive recent study of immigrant workers comes from the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that, unlike Mr. Bernstein's, advocates stricter controls on immigration. The study, by the center's research director, Steven A. Camarota, found that immigrants are a majority of workers in only 4 of 473 job classifications — stucco masons, tailors, produce sorters and beauty salon workers. But even in those four job categories, native-born workers account for more than 40 percent of the work force.

While it might be a challenge to find an American-born cab driver in New York or parking lot attendant in Phoenix or grape cutter in the San Joaquin Valley of California, according to Mr. Camarota's study of census data from 2000-2005, 59 percent of cab drivers in the United States are native born, as are 66 percent of all valet parkers. Half of all workers in agriculture were born in this country.

"The idea that there are jobs that Americans won't do is economic gibberish," Mr. Camarota said. "All the big occupations that immigrants are in — construction, janitorial, even agriculture — are overwhelmingly done by native Americans."

But where they compete for jobs, he said, the immigrants have driven up the jobless rate for some Americans. According to his study, published in March, unemployment among the native born with less than a high school education was 14.3 percent in 2005; the figure for the immigrant population was 7.4 percent.

… George J. Borjas, a professor of economics and social policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, said he believed that the flow of migrants had significantly depressed wages for Americans in virtually all job categories and income levels. His study found that the average annual wage loss for all American male workers from 1980 to 2000 was $1,200, or 4 percent, and nearly twice that, in percentage terms, for those without a high school diploma. The impact was also disproportionately high on African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans, Professor Borjas found.

"What this is, is a huge redistribution of wealth away from workers who compete with immigrants to those who employ them," he said. …”

I 'm really tired of hearing about jobs Americans won't take. I've heard that lie all my life, usually with a racial agenda.

I've seen people stand in line for days in sub-zero (farenheit) weather for housecleaning jobs at a hotel that hadn't been built. I know people who work two and three jobs with no benefits. I know people who've never had a steady job, who have, nonetheless, never stopped looking.

The jobs just aren't open to people who look like them… In Chicago, the city where I live, it's all too common to see major street repair and highway projects run through the center of the African American community with every ehtnic group except African Americans represented.

It's no accident, statistical fluke or coincidence. Without constant pressure from government the contractors are actively not looking for African Americans. They moved out of the city to make it more difficult for them to apply for work. Their unions moved their training facilities out of the city's educational system when they were required to integrate them. It was and remains easier for an illegal to enter the construction trades here than a Black citizen of the United States.

That isn't the fault of immigrants, but many of the opportunities they take advantage of are there because African Americans and others fought for them, went to jail for them, even died for them.

The problem is the ‘sucking sound’ Ross Perot warned about is only heard in isolated, segregated, desolated parts of our cities.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/weekinreview/02broder.html?pagewanted=all

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