Sunday, October 12, 2003

A week ago, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said the Bush administration was having "intense discussions" with Israel about these issues and weighing such options as a reduction in loan guarantees enacted earlier this year by Congress. But there is no sign that such a step is in the offing.

Arab, European and United Nations diplomats who have been drawn into the peace efforts through drafting a peace plan known as the road map say they fear that Mr. Sharon has assumed that, for whatever reason, Mr. Bush is not in a position to ask for a halt to Israeli actions.

Indeed, they say they doubt that Mr. Bush will re-engage in the peace efforts before the American election next year, out of fear that whatever he does will draw criticism, especially among the conservative Christian and Jewish supporters of Israel who form a part of his political base.

"The word you hear a lot of is `disengaged,' " said a diplomat involved in the peace plan. "Sharon figured out long ago that all he has to do is the absolute minimum to keep Bush off his back and at his side. If the United States is disengaged, that's exactly what Sharon wants."

The construction of a barrier by Israel has drawn fire from critics who regarded it as an intended marker for the boundaries of a future, shrunken Palestinian state. Mr. Bush has said that, in principle, there should not be a barrier that snakes its way through the West Bank.

Despite these warnings, the Israeli cabinet last month approved construction of separate barriers around Palestinian settlements in the West Bank, leaving open the possibility that they would be connected to the larger wall around the entire area next year.

It was not lost on anyone in the Bush administration that completion of the most contested parts of the barrier could become an issue in the middle of the American presidential election, when Mr. Bush might feel even more reluctant to criticize it.

American officials say that, if completed in the way Israel envisions, the barrier could end up creating an Israeli-dominated West Bank with "cantonments" set aside for Palestinians, precluding the contiguous Palestinian state envisioned by the peace plan.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/12/international/middleeast/12SHAR.html?pagewanted=all&position=

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