The W Scenario
Celebrating victory well in advance seems to be the style lately. And that includes the economic front. Both the administration and many business leaders have taken a modest improvement in economic indicators as proof that the economy is poised for full recovery. They could be right — but don't count on it.

The good news to date consists mainly of evidence not that things are getting better but that they are getting worse more slowly. New claims for unemployment insurance have fallen; that means fewer people are being laid off, but not that laid-off workers are finding new jobs. Industrial production has stabilized; that means that companies have worked off the excess inventory that led them to slash production in 2001, but not that demand for their products has increased.

We won't have a serious recovery until what economists call "final demand" shows substantial increases, and workers start being rehired. Where will that recovery come from?
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/22/opinion/22KRUG.html?todaysheadlines&pagewanted=all